美国人的招数

美国人的招数



注:从CNN的一篇观点文章中了解美国的一些作为专家精英对中美贸易战的看法,知己知彼。

CNN 9月12日发表于Business Perspectives的一篇观点文章:Tariffs are hurting Americans. Here are other ways Trump can punish China,给出了除了关税之外的四个惩罚(punish)中国的大招(ways)。


作者是LEO Hindery Jr.,此君是美国the Task Force on Jobs Creation 的联合主席(co-chair)和美国外交关系协会(the Council on Foreign Relations)成员。他还是AT&T Broadband and its predecessor, Tele-Communications,Inc.(TCI)的CEO。

注:AT&T是美国电信运营商,它分别于1998年和1999年兼并了美国第二大和第三大有线电视公司TCI(后来的AT&T Broadband)和MediaOne。

LEO Hindery Jr.,从这个名字来看,他应该和他的父亲同名。与传统中国人把祖父、父亲的名字视为忌讳不一样,西方人常常会把儿子的名字改为跟父亲或祖父一样,寄望的是虎父无犬子,例如肯尼迪、布什等。一般父子同名的情况下,会在名字后加上Jr.(Junior的缩写),Sr. (Senior的缩写)。例如,老布什和小布什,小布什的全名是“George Walker Bush”,老爸是“George Herbert Walker Bush”。老布什的名字可以写为:Geoge H. W. Bush (Wikipedia)。其实还有一位“老老老布什”:George Herbert "Bert" Walker Sr. (Juen 11,1875-Juen 24,1953) , was an American banker and businessman. He was the maternal grandfather of President George H.W. Bush and a great-grandfather of President Geoge W. Bush, both of whom were named in his honor. (Wekipeidia)就是老布什总统的爷爷,小布什总统的曾祖父。

也就是说,一位银行家、两位总统的这三位爷孙三位都共用一个名字:“Geoge Walker Bush”。不知道从中国的名字的风水学来说,这个名字似乎很利于Bush家族哦。

该篇文章,主要观点是:1、特朗普的关税策略是战略性重大错误;2、提出了4点真正能“惩罚”中国的“招数”。

有关作者对特朗普的政策批判有:

It's clear that President Trump's ongoing tariff gambit is a strategic blunder. 这是一个总体的定性描述: 很明显,特朗普总统现行的关税策略是一个战略性愚蠢的错误。

Workers, conumers and farmers are already  paying a steep price for the President's shortsightedness, and there's likely much more pain to come. 这个错误已经让工人、消费者、农民买单,而且更严重的是会有更多的痛苦(more pain)要承受。作者强调,目前的混乱状态其实是可以避免的(All of this chaos was avoidable),而且增加关税应该是最后的一招(tariffs should have been used as a last reort)。不过特朗普将关税作为第一招就打出去了,也就没有预计这一招对美国经济和它的工人带来的反效果(adverse consequnences)。

Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs ,aimed mostly at China because of its dominance in producing these raw materials, demonstrates just how the President's ill-conceived(考虑不周的) strategy has backfired(事与愿违)。作者接着解释为什么特朗普政府(Trump administration)"blindly overlooked the reality"(不假思索的错误地认识实际情况)!

什么实际情况呢?美国有总共有650万工人,也就是钢铁行业46倍的的14万工人(46-times more American workers, have jobs with manufactures that use raw steel and aluminum) ,他们需要用到这些钢铝作为原材料。这些原材料的关税提高,无疑将提高生产成本,导致需要裁员加价来维持生产了。

If Trump continues to tariff Chinese goods, the real losers will be the American consumers, manufacturers and famers who will bear the costs. These costs will be far greater than those borne by their Chinese counterparts simply because the Chinese purchases so much less from us than we do from them.

作者觉得特朗普的关税政策是“愚蠢的错误”(blunder)主要的原因就是:一是,提高关税其实提高了美国原材料成本,对更多的工人带来负面影响;二是,由于美国买的更多,负面影响的自然也比中国的多多了。

作者认为贸易战是两败俱伤:There can never be a successful tariff war between two trading countries that have a large export imbalance, like the United States and China.

虽然作者本质上对中国的态度其实和特朗普一样的,就是认为中国有错:

Trump is right on one thing, however: China dose cheat in trade in many ways - specially through currency manipulation, providing low-cost capital and tax relief to its "state-owned enterprises", intellectual property theft and forced technology transfers.

当然,作者提出的就是针对中国“错误”的办法:

We should stop China's cheating with the combination of diplomacy and balanced responses that don't bring the United States to the precipice of another recession. 他提出的是要利用外加手段但是要找到一个不至于将美国经济拖入衰退悬崖的境地。他提出要利用好世界贸易组织这个平台:We should also turn to the World Trade Organization to prosecute any "product dumping" cases. 也就是去找中国贸易倾销的“辫子”。

批判完了,作者说“We need a new approach”,就提出自认为高明的四点“高招”:

注:作者提到了有关方法方面用了三个词语:approach、way、reort。way,在标题出现:Here are other ways ......。文中开头再抨击特朗普的策略是,说关税征收应该是最后一招:tariffs should have been used as a last resort.

第一招

First, we must address the conditions that have led to our massive trade deficit in manufactured goods.Trump should create a permanent Council on Manufacturing consisting of senior government officials, private sector leaders and labor representatives, to help the federal government develop smart manufacturing policies.

作者提到需要对为什么造成美中逆差的原因进行分析。文中提到,美国只有8.5%的劳动力是在制造业,制造业对GDP的贡献是12%;而中国的制造业对GDP贡献是40%。他建议政府要建立一个在专业委员会制定更加smart的制造业政策:将制造业就业占比增加到10-12%。

第二招

We can initiate anti-dumping complaints with the WTO to investigate if China is selling the US export goods below their home market values.

期间还要充分利用WTO世界贸易组织去控诉中国的不正当补贴、贸易倾销,以便迫使中国改变这些不正当竞争手段。

第三招

Third, we must better protect America's national defense by eliminating the $135 billion annual trade deficit we have with China for what are called Advanced Technology Products, or ATPs.

将美国国防军工产品的生产拿回美国生产,一方面提高国内生产;另一方面可以防止中国“盗取”美国知识产权。

第四招

And fourth, we need to establish strict "buy-domestic/buy American" procurement requirements on all future infrastructure projects wich are funded or guaranteed either by the federal government or by the porposed national infrstructure bank currently being considered by Congress.

对于美国联邦政府或者国会支持的基础建设项目,要求建立严格的“支持国货”的采购要求。

作者最后认为他的高招要在造成更多损失之前实施:

There are proven alternatives to Trump's ill-conceived (考虑不周的) and impulsive (冲动的) tariffs. We just have to pursue them before more damage is done. 

欠缺考虑的(ill-conceived)和冲动的(impulsive),视乎就是作者对特朗普关税政策的主要评价了。但是作者对于中国的看法和“高招”需要认清和警惕。作者的核心观点还是认为中国该“打”,只不过“打法”有问题,而且提出了自认为更加聪明有效的“打法”。



两个研究机构:


Peterson Institute for International Economics

Economic Policy Institute Policy

Last update: 2019-09-13|Pageview:179
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