高盛

CNBC - Goldman Sachs says Asia is 'best positioned' for economic recovery

CNBC 在2020年10月5日 晚上9:49 (EDT)发布的远程视频访谈,采访了高盛亚太区首席经济学家Andrew Tilton(很多中文翻译为迪安竹)。

标题是:高盛认为亚洲是经济复苏准备得最好的地区。这里关键的是“positioned”如何翻译,这里有“准备好”的意思。

position的动词意思是:put or arrange (sb. or sth.) in a particular place or way。在该文的重点部分(Key Points)的第一条:Asia is well placed for economic recovery compared to the rest of the world because it has mostly successfully contained the coronavirus. 相对世界其它地区,亚洲处于更有利于经济复苏的位置。原因是亚洲大部分国家(in most of the region outside of India and some parts of Southeast Asia,注意他只的是除了印度和部分东南亚地区的大部分亚洲地区)已经成功控制了新冠病毒的蔓延。从全球来看,迪安竹认为工业的复苏势头保持良好并有理由对2021年的复苏保持乐观(reasonably upbeat on)。第三个重点,他还对美国的刺激措施和总统大选对亚洲经济增长的影响发表了看法(weighed in on how U.S.stimulus and persidential election results could affect growth in Asia)。

迪安竹,总的观点就是:亚洲最先复苏,并对全球的经济复苏保持乐观

Asia is well placed for economic recovery compared to the rest of the world because it has mostly succeeded in containing the coronavirus. 迪安竹的原话:“We think Asia's really the best positioned of the major regions right now, just given the good control of the virus in most of the region outside of India and some parts of Southeast Asia.”

他说,不像美国,中国的消费是缓慢恢复的:China's consumer spending has been "more sluggish" because, unlike in the U.S., stimulus measures were not directed at income replacement. sluggish,有“缓慢的、迟缓的、懒洋洋”的意思。如:The economy remains sluggish. (经济的发展依然非常缓慢)。因为中国不像美国那样,是直接给居民发现金来刺激消费的。不过,随着中国对疫情有效的控制(the good control of domestic transmission of the virus in China), we are seeing services activity come back there as well (我们也将看到中国的服务业的恢复)。

他提到的全球的“reasonable momentum”(momentum 可以翻译为“势头”),是基于“recent purchasing managers' indices” (采购经理人指数)逐步转好。这也是他对持续到2021年的经济复苏保持乐观的理由。

他还提到了(weighed in on U.S. stimulus and election)的影响。他认为如果拜登当选,会改变华府的关税和贸易政策,这将广泛影响亚洲乃至全球。另外,他认为新的stimulus measures(刺激措施)对亚洲有利(would have positive spillover effects)。其中民主党主张更多数量(2.2万亿多于共和党的1.6万亿)的方案更加有利:“In the event that we have a so-called blue wave - that is to say Biden winning and unified Democratic control - we think the prospects in that scenario for  a very large fiscal stimulus are probably bigger.”



CNBC- 30 Asia-based market strategists reveal how they're playing the U.S. election

how they're playing the U.S. election 这里的play有“to deal with a situation in the way mentioned” 就是有以某种方式应对处理的意思,例如:He played the situation carefully for maximum advantage (他谨慎应对局面以获得最大利益). CNBC是匿名采访了30位亚洲市场专家(或投资者)“如何应对美国大选”的观点(view)。这些投资者对大选的结果有很大的分歧(sharply divided),其中的12位认为拜登赢得大选;11位预计是 a contested election,即势均力敌的竞选(It was a closely conttested election. 这是一个势均力敌的竞选);7位选择(pick)特朗普获胜。

调查的结果认为,“The Democrats have given no indication that they will be any easier on China than the GOP.”  民主党没有表示会比共和党对中国更加友好的意愿。不过一般认为:

The strategists said a Biden victory would be most positive for China, Japan and South Korea, while a Trump win would be be beneficial for India, Vietnam, the Philippines and also Taiwan.




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