May's employment report is the big event in the week ahead, as stocks enter the often weak month of June. Stocks are finishing May with a mixed performance. Big cap indexes like the S&P 500 and Dow notched gains. The S&P rose a half percent, and the Dow rose 1.9%. The small cap Russell 2000 was flat, up 0.1%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq declined 1.5%.
June is not historically a strong month for stocks. Bespoke Investment Group points out that over the past 50 years, the Dow has gained just 0.12% in June and has been positive 52% of the time.
But over the past 20 years, June was far weaker, gaining only 40% of the time. June's performance is tied with September as the worst month of the year, with an average Dow decline of 0.7%, according to Bespoke.